After winning three World Cups in a row, it is possibly a safe assumption that Gwen Jorgensen will be fairly competitive at this weekend’s Miyazaki World Cup.
Her most recent win in Tongyeong showed the size of the task her competitors have in getting past her. In contrast to her win in Valencia, Jorgensen did not have an especially good swim. She balanced that out with a good bike split. However, a slow T2 put her on the back foot once more.
Nevertheless, even as others around her elevated their level and enjoyed brilliant races, Jorgensen always had an extra gear in reserve. When she deployed it on the final lap of the run, no one had an answer to her.
In Miyazaki, then, it would be fair to expect more of the same. On paper, expectations that Jorgensen will be defeated could be fanciful; as she showed back in her world title winning days, once she gets on a roll like this, she is hard to stop.
Among her closest challengers will be Yuko Takahashi and Tereza Zimovjanova, the silver and bronze medallists from Tongyeong. Zimovjanova’s medal was her first ever on the World Cup circuit. It also came a week after her previous best performance, a 5th place in Chengdu.
The Czech athlete is clearly in great form and will likely continue her run in Miyazaki.
Meanwhile, Takahashi’s silver medal represented her first medal at a World Cup in eight years. As it happened, her previous medal also came in Tongyeong.
Of late, it seems that Takahashi has dialled in on her race strategy. She was the fastest swimmer in Tongyeong and raced aggressively throughout, taking on the bike and run from the start. She also used a similar style of racing to take the win at the Asian Games.
Using the same tactics will give her the best chance of defeating Jorgensen in Miyazaki. If she can get on the front foot once more and generate a breakaway, she could potentially hold the American at bay. Racing on home soil will also give Takahashi a small lift which could boost her chances.
When it comes to a potential breakaway, Takahashi also has a series of useful allies.
Kate Waugh, the silver medallist from the WTCS Final in Pontevedra, is no stranger to a breakaway. After all, it is how she won her World U23 title in 2022. Also in the breakaway at that U23 race was Bianca Seregni. Having won her last two Olympic distance World Cups, Seregni will also be starting in Miyazaki.
Seregni is without question the best swimmer in the field and is capable if putting substantial time into the rest of the field. If Waugh and Takahashi can stick with her and then work with her on the bike, they will have the makings of an uncatchable break.
Claire Michel will be another to watch. Like Zimovjanova, she has had a successful stint in Asia this month. A silver medal in Chengdu preceded a 4th place in Tongyeong. In the latter, she was also one of the best swimmers. Should she get similar clear water this weekend, she could make the front pack and add another powerful cyclist to the group.
Notably, Waugh, Takahashi and Michel have all been a part of The Triathlon Squad, the training outfit in Portugal. The common ground between them may make it easier to organise an attack once onto the bike.
As much as Jorgensen is among the favourites on paper, then, she will face stern opposition and could be put under immense pressure.
In addition, it is hard to ignore the credentials of Jeanne Lehair. Such has been her running form in the WTCS this year, she could even beat Jorgensen in a head-to-head in the third discipline. Lehair’s times have stacked up well against the likes of Beth Potter and Cassandre Beaugrand, the fastest runners of 2023.
As another member of The Triathlon Squad, she could even sneak into a breakaway and turn the race into a kind of team time trial.
Like Jorgensen, chances are Lehair will be a little behind the leading swimmers (such as Seregni and Waugh). With her running speed, she will be tough to beat whatever happens.
Alice Betto will also be racing having won the Brasilia World Cup. Moreover, Ilaria Zane will be hoping to add another World Cup medal to her name after bronzes in Weihai and Chengdu.
All in all, Miyazaki will have a tremendous field and the race could unfold in any number of ways. Given the power of a vital group of athletes in the first two disciplines, though, a small breakaway could be on the cards.
TriStats Predictions
- Kate Waugh
- Bianca Seregni
- Yuko Takahashi
- Jeanne Lehair
- Gwen Jorgensen
